Edge Value Performance

How reliable is our Edge % signal? This shows the real win rate and ROI for completed picks at each edge level, per sport — so you can see whether higher edge has actually meant better results.

Edge Performance — NBA (36 graded picks)

Edge Range	Win Rate	ROI	Sample Size
0–5%	50.0%	-4.5%	2⚠ small sample
5–10%	100.0%	+100.0%	1⚠ small sample
10–20%	50.0%	+1.7%	6⚠ small sample
20–30%	75.0%	+40.8%	8⚠ small sample
30–40%	100.0%	+95.0%	5⚠ small sample
40%+	50.0%	-0.4%	14⚠ small sample

Edge vs ROI

0–5%

-4.5% ROI

5–10%

+100.0% ROI

10–20%

+1.7% ROI

20–30%

+40.8% ROI

30–40%

+95.0% ROI

40%+

-0.4% ROI

Shows whether ROI scales with edge or breaks down at high edge values. Specific to NBA.

Edge Distribution

What share of completed NBA picks fell into each edge range.

0–10%

8.3% (3)

10–20%

16.7% (6)

20–30%

22.2% (8)

30%+

52.8% (19)